There’s a difference between a collapse and a slowdown. We don’t need a collapse for hiring to slow down [1,2]. I think we’re finally just seeing the maturation of software development. Software is increasingly a commodity, so maybe the era of crazy growth and hiring is over. I don’t think that we need AI to explain this either, although possibly AI will simply commodify more kinds of software.

[1] https://www.npr.org/2026/02/12/nx-s1-5711455/revised-labor-d...

[2] https://www.marketplace.org/story/2025/12/18/expect-more-of-...