> Is there anything better to gauge creativity by than perceived surprise?
I think there has to be, since such surprise can be generated through purely random mechanisms, and I don't think anyone would call a purely random mechanism "creative".
This reminds me of when I would be surprised by AI bots I coded up for video games. Yeah, sometimes they beat me, and their strategies were often a mix of RNG and heuristics so I was certainly surprised by their behavior on many occasions. But would I consider them creative? No. Would they fool some people into thinking they had creativity and agency? Sure.
I think there has to be, since such surprise can be generated through purely random mechanisms, and I don't think anyone would call a purely random mechanism "creative".