1. The current DL-based approaches to ML hit some local optimum and progress stalls. We all keep our jobs as programmers, although I hope this doesn't happen.
2. Programmers end up undergoing a shift in work, in which they move from producers of code to primarily analyzers of ML-produced code. We still keep our jobs but hopefully productivity massively increases.
3. ML-produced code has such high quality that programmers become completely obsolete. We lose our jobs, but many people retrain to become ML specialists and it's not too much of an inconvenience.
4. ML-produced code has such high quality that programmers AND ML specialists become obsolete. That is, a model is produced that is capable of designing, implementing, and executing a process that results in a more capable model. All humans lose their jobs and we enter into the asymptotic era, the singularity.
I'm personally planning for a scenario between 2 and 3. It's gradually gonna shift towards 3 over time. I'd also say it's not even worth planning for scenario 4.
1. The current DL-based approaches to ML hit some local optimum and progress stalls. We all keep our jobs as programmers, although I hope this doesn't happen.
2. Programmers end up undergoing a shift in work, in which they move from producers of code to primarily analyzers of ML-produced code. We still keep our jobs but hopefully productivity massively increases.
3. ML-produced code has such high quality that programmers become completely obsolete. We lose our jobs, but many people retrain to become ML specialists and it's not too much of an inconvenience.
4. ML-produced code has such high quality that programmers AND ML specialists become obsolete. That is, a model is produced that is capable of designing, implementing, and executing a process that results in a more capable model. All humans lose their jobs and we enter into the asymptotic era, the singularity.
I'm personally planning for a scenario between 2 and 3. It's gradually gonna shift towards 3 over time. I'd also say it's not even worth planning for scenario 4.