> I imagine of the ~7 billion people alive today, perhaps 6 billion are not potential Apple customers at all due to price. Quite a few billion are potential low-end Android phone users though.
The 3GS is now free with a contract, just like the low-end Android phones.
"Free with contract" is still a roughly $1500 commitment. For the real low end, you need to look at what it costs for budget prepaid carriers, and in the iPhone's case I believe that you still simply can't get one there.
And you're still restricting yourself to the US market. Globally, your second sentence is a lot more representative, I think, because handsets aren't bundled with contracts. So the real prices of the handsets are reflected more accurately.
Who buys a smartphone for 2 months? If you're someone who wants a smartphone odds are even if it was off contract you'd end up paying the $1500 anyway. You might switch carriers more often but honestly all 4 carriers give the same "I wish it was somewhat better but I'm fine with any of them" service where I live.
It's not for serial upgraders, it's for prepaid/regional carrier accounts. I have a friend who bought a Motorola Triumph recently and pays something $30/mo. for unlimited voice and data. There are also people who want a smartphone with just a voice plan because they only plan on using data while on wifi.
Virgin Mobile updated their rates this month: "$30/mo" is now "$35/mo" and "unlimited" is now "unlimted with throttling at 2.5 GB".
It's great that small carriers are offering some great deals to lure customers and it's great that there are some cracks in the system for the tiny minority that doesn't want a data plan (or whatever) sbut that doesn't change the basic truth that nearly everyone is going to be paying for phone and data every month anyway.
These "total cost of ownership is obscene" things are always disingenuous to me. No, that's the price of the phone and phone service and a data plan for 2 years.
$250 (handset) + $35/mo * 12 mo = $775. Approximately half the cost of ownership.
I think this thread is about the cost of ownership of a "free with contact" iPhone 3GS vs. alternatives, targeted at the low end. I think that's a significant difference for this market. You disagree?
Are you saying this Virgin mobile plan is representative of what the average low end Android buyer gets? And can't you get an unlocked iphone and put it on the same sorts of plans?
I would guess the median low end Android buyer signs up with Verizon and gets the same data plan choices they would if they have an iphone.
Ah, I see where our disagreement is. I agree with you that the current low-end of Android is what you describe, and reading one node higher in the thread, I understand what you're arguing, that the iPhone 3GS is now competing directly with current "free with contract" Android phones. I lost track of that at some point.
I guess to me, the way bundling works, referring to the $1500 cost of ownership as the low-end as opposed to the $1700 cost of ownership seems wrong. That's what the carrier's want you to think, of course, that the only choice is between this "free" phone with the expensive plan and this "high-end" phone with the expensive plan.
But the real low-end is to get away from the expensive plan. And now that there are Android phones that are $250 off contract that are actually quite good, I think this true low-end becomes a viable option for a lot of people, esp. that portion of the market that hasn't yet converted to smart phones.
The 3GS is now free with a contract, just like the low-end Android phones.